Probably Football

Matches

Primera A (Colombia)

Millonarios vs America de Cali

  1. Millonarios38%
  2. Draw30%
  3. America de Cali32%

1.23 expected goals for Millonarios

1.40 expected goals for America de Cali

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the America de Cali defence, which lets in 44% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the America de Cali attack, which scores 55% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Millonarios

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Millonarios attack+46%
  3. America de Cali defence−44%

Expected goals1.23

America de Cali

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. America de Cali attack+55%
  2. Millonarios defence−34%

Expected goals1.40

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.0 for Millonarios and 4.2 for America de Cali

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

5.1 expected

2.5 for Millonarios and 2.6 for America de Cali

  1. Over 3.5 cards75%
  2. Over 4.5 cards57%
  3. Over 5.5 cards40%

Shots

24.8 expected

13.6 for Millonarios and 11.1 for America de Cali

  1. Over 20.5 shots72%
  2. Over 22.5 shots61%
  3. Over 24.5 shots49%

Fouls

25.0 expected

12.4 for Millonarios and 12.7 for America de Cali

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls52%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.