Probably Football

Matches

Primera A (Colombia)

Llaneros vs Junior

  1. Llaneros34%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Junior36%

1.04 expected goals for Llaneros

1.42 expected goals for Junior

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 36%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Junior attack, which scores 35% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Llaneros defence, which lets in 23% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Llaneros

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Llaneros attack−11%
  3. Junior defence−23%

Expected goals1.04

Junior

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Junior attack+35%
  2. Llaneros defence−23%

Expected goals1.42

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.4 for Llaneros and 3.8 for Junior

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners43%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.3 for Llaneros and 2.3 for Junior

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

27.9 expected

15.4 for Llaneros and 12.5 for Junior

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

23.5 expected

10.8 for Llaneros and 12.7 for Junior

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.