Probably Football

Matches

Primera A (Colombia)

Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar

  1. Independiente Medellin57%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Alianza Valledupar16%

1.80 expected goals for Independiente Medellin

0.96 expected goals for Alianza Valledupar

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Independiente Medellin the clear favourite: 57% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Independiente Medellin attack, which scores 32% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Independiente Medellin defence, which lets in 22% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Independiente Medellin

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Independiente Medellin attack+32%
  3. Alianza Valledupar defence−10%

Expected goals1.80

Alianza Valledupar

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Alianza Valledupar attack−10%
  2. Independiente Medellin defence−22%

Expected goals0.96

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.5 for Independiente Medellin and 4.0 for Alianza Valledupar

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

5.3 expected

2.5 for Independiente Medellin and 2.9 for Alianza Valledupar

  1. Over 3.5 cards77%
  2. Over 4.5 cards61%
  3. Over 5.5 cards44%

Shots

25.9 expected

13.7 for Independiente Medellin and 12.2 for Alianza Valledupar

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

22.8 expected

10.7 for Independiente Medellin and 12.1 for Alianza Valledupar

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls50%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.