Cucuta vs Santa Fe
- Cucuta29%
- Draw30%
- Santa Fe41%
0.88 expected goals for Cucuta
1.60 expected goals for Santa Fe
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Santa Fe has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Cucuta win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Santa Fe defence, which lets in 42% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Santa Fe attack, which scores 33% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.4 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Cucuta
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Cucuta attack0%
- Santa Fe defence−42%
Expected goals0.88
Santa Fe
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Santa Fe attack+33%
- Cucuta defence−11%
Expected goals1.60
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals72%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Over 3.5 goals24%
- Over 4.5 goals11%
- Both teams score49%
- Cucuta or draw59%
- Draw or Santa Fe71%
- No draw70%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.4 expected
4.8 for Cucuta and 4.6 for Santa Fe
- Over 8.5 corners56%
- Over 9.5 corners46%
- Over 10.5 corners36%
Cards
4.7 expected
2.1 for Cucuta and 2.6 for Santa Fe
- Over 3.5 cards69%
- Over 4.5 cards51%
- Over 5.5 cards33%
Shots
25.9 expected
12.0 for Cucuta and 13.8 for Santa Fe
- Over 20.5 shots77%
- Over 22.5 shots67%
- Over 24.5 shots55%
Fouls
21.6 expected
10.8 for Cucuta and 10.8 for Santa Fe
- Over 20.5 fouls57%
- Over 22.5 fouls41%
- Over 24.5 fouls27%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.