Probably Football

Matches

Primera A (Colombia)

Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional

  1. Bucaramanga33%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Atletico Nacional38%

1.11 expected goals for Bucaramanga

1.58 expected goals for Atletico Nacional

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Atletico Nacional defence, which lets in 44% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Atletico Nacional attack, which scores 67% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Bucaramanga

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Bucaramanga attack+32%
  3. Atletico Nacional defence−44%

Expected goals1.11

Atletico Nacional

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Atletico Nacional attack+67%
  2. Bucaramanga defence−30%

Expected goals1.58

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

4.2 for Bucaramanga and 5.4 for Atletico Nacional

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Bucaramanga and 2.3 for Atletico Nacional

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

26.6 expected

9.7 for Bucaramanga and 17.0 for Atletico Nacional

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

23.1 expected

11.7 for Bucaramanga and 11.4 for Atletico Nacional

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.