Probably Football

Matches

Primera A (Colombia)

Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC

  1. Águilas Doradas48%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Fortaleza FC23%

1.48 expected goals for Águilas Doradas

1.10 expected goals for Fortaleza FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Águilas Doradas has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Fortaleza FC win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Águilas Doradas defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Águilas Doradas

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Águilas Doradas attack+13%
  3. Fortaleza FC defence−13%

Expected goals1.48

Fortaleza FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Fortaleza FC attack−1%
  2. Águilas Doradas defence−18%

Expected goals1.10

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.8 for Águilas Doradas and 4.6 for Fortaleza FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

5.7 expected

2.8 for Águilas Doradas and 2.9 for Fortaleza FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards82%
  2. Over 4.5 cards67%
  3. Over 5.5 cards50%

Shots

24.2 expected

12.5 for Águilas Doradas and 11.7 for Fortaleza FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots70%
  2. Over 22.5 shots58%
  3. Over 24.5 shots46%

Fouls

25.3 expected

11.9 for Águilas Doradas and 13.4 for Fortaleza FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls81%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.