Probably Football

Matches

Primera A (Colombia)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Junior1-0Águilas Doradas

The model's most likely result happened: a Junior win (50%).

Junior vs Águilas Doradas

  1. Junior50%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Águilas Doradas23%

1.76 expected goals for Junior

1.29 expected goals for Águilas Doradas

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Junior has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Águilas Doradas win at 23%. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.7 for Junior and 4.2 for Águilas Doradas

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.9 expected

2.3 for Junior and 2.6 for Águilas Doradas

  1. Over 3.5 cards73%
  2. Over 4.5 cards55%
  3. Over 5.5 cards37%

Shots

27.8 expected

16.6 for Junior and 11.1 for Águilas Doradas

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

24.3 expected

13.2 for Junior and 11.1 for Águilas Doradas

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.