Probably Football

Matches

Primera A (Colombia)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Deportes Tolima0-1Deportivo Pasto

The model gave this result 15%. Its most likely result was a Deportes Tolima win (56%).

Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto

  1. Deportes Tolima56%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Deportivo Pasto15%

1.57 expected goals for Deportes Tolima

0.80 expected goals for Deportivo Pasto

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Deportes Tolima the clear favourite: 56% to win. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 8.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals22%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.8 expected

5.1 for Deportes Tolima and 3.7 for Deportivo Pasto

  1. Over 8.5 corners49%
  2. Over 9.5 corners39%
  3. Over 10.5 corners29%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.1 for Deportes Tolima and 2.6 for Deportivo Pasto

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

24.7 expected

15.5 for Deportes Tolima and 9.1 for Deportivo Pasto

  1. Over 20.5 shots72%
  2. Over 22.5 shots60%
  3. Over 24.5 shots48%

Fouls

23.9 expected

12.5 for Deportes Tolima and 11.4 for Deportivo Pasto

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.