Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Atletico Grau vs Cusco

  1. Atletico Grau32%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Cusco41%

1.14 expected goals for Atletico Grau

1.50 expected goals for Cusco

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Cusco has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Atletico Grau win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cusco defence, which lets in 16% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Cusco attack, which scores 18% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Atletico Grau

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Atletico Grau attack−11%
  3. Cusco defence−16%

Expected goals1.14

Cusco

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Cusco attack+18%
  2. Atletico Grau defence−6%

Expected goals1.50

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.3 for Atletico Grau and 4.2 for Cusco

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for Atletico Grau and 2.4 for Cusco

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

27.4 expected

14.6 for Atletico Grau and 12.9 for Cusco

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

21.9 expected

10.4 for Atletico Grau and 11.5 for Cusco

  1. Over 20.5 fouls60%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls44%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls30%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.