Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Wednesday 28 October, 16:00

Final score

FC Cajamarca1-3UTC Cajamarca

The model gave this result 30%. Its most likely result was a FC Cajamarca win (50%).

FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca

  1. FC Cajamarca50%
  2. Draw20%
  3. UTC Cajamarca30%

2.10 expected goals for FC Cajamarca

1.78 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

FC Cajamarca has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 20% and a UTC Cajamarca win at 30%. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 66%. And about 8.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals66%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals54%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals35%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.7 expected

5.1 for FC Cajamarca and 3.5 for UTC Cajamarca

  1. Over 8.5 corners48%
  2. Over 9.5 corners37%
  3. Over 10.5 corners28%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.0 for FC Cajamarca and 2.4 for UTC Cajamarca

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

32.8 expected

20.8 for FC Cajamarca and 12.0 for UTC Cajamarca

  1. Over 20.5 shots94%
  2. Over 22.5 shots89%
  3. Over 24.5 shots83%

Fouls

26.5 expected

13.5 for FC Cajamarca and 13.0 for UTC Cajamarca

  1. Over 20.5 fouls86%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls75%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls63%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.