Cienciano vs Atletico Grau

Cienciano49%
Draw26%
Atletico Grau25%

1.59 expected goals for Cienciano

1.19 expected goals for Atletico Grau

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Cienciano has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Atletico Grau win at 25%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 10.3 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
Over 1.5 goals77%It happened
Over 2.5 goals51%It happened
Over 3.5 goals30%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals15%It did not happen

Both teams score55%
Cienciano or draw75%
Draw or Atletico Grau51%
No draw74%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

6.6 for Cienciano and 3.8 for Atletico Grau

Over 8.5 corners65%
Over 9.5 corners55%
Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

5.1 expected

2.7 for Cienciano and 2.4 for Atletico Grau

Over 3.5 cards75%
Over 4.5 cards58%
Over 5.5 cards40%

Shots

30.1 expected

20.5 for Cienciano and 9.6 for Atletico Grau

Over 20.5 shots89%
Over 22.5 shots82%
Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

24.5 expected

13.0 for Cienciano and 11.5 for Atletico Grau

Over 20.5 fouls77%
Over 22.5 fouls63%
Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.