Wednesday 28 October, 16:00
Final score
Cienciano3-0Atletico Grau
The model's most likely result happened: a Cienciano win (49%).
Cienciano vs Atletico Grau
- Cienciano49%
- Draw26%
- Atletico Grau25%
1.59 expected goals for Cienciano
1.19 expected goals for Atletico Grau
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
Cienciano has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Atletico Grau win at 25%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 10.3 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals77%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals51%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals30%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals15%It did not happen
- Both teams score55%
- Cienciano or draw75%
- Draw or Atletico Grau51%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.3 expected
6.6 for Cienciano and 3.8 for Atletico Grau
- Over 8.5 corners65%
- Over 9.5 corners55%
- Over 10.5 corners45%
Cards
5.1 expected
2.7 for Cienciano and 2.4 for Atletico Grau
- Over 3.5 cards75%
- Over 4.5 cards58%
- Over 5.5 cards40%
Shots
30.1 expected
20.5 for Cienciano and 9.6 for Atletico Grau
- Over 20.5 shots89%
- Over 22.5 shots82%
- Over 24.5 shots73%
Fouls
24.5 expected
13.0 for Cienciano and 11.5 for Atletico Grau
- Over 20.5 fouls77%
- Over 22.5 fouls63%
- Over 24.5 fouls48%
Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.