Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Wednesday 28 October, 16:00

Final score

Alianza Atletico3-2Deportivo Garcilaso

The model gave this result 29%. Its most likely result was a Deportivo Garcilaso win (49%).

Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso

  1. Alianza Atletico29%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Deportivo Garcilaso49%

1.19 expected goals for Alianza Atletico

1.94 expected goals for Deportivo Garcilaso

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Deportivo Garcilaso has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Alianza Atletico win at 29%. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.6 for Alianza Atletico and 4.5 for Deportivo Garcilaso

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Alianza Atletico and 2.4 for Deportivo Garcilaso

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

28.7 expected

16.4 for Alianza Atletico and 12.3 for Deportivo Garcilaso

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

25.8 expected

12.7 for Alianza Atletico and 13.1 for Deportivo Garcilaso

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls72%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls58%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.