Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Peru)

Saturday 24 October, 15:00

Final score

Deportivo Garcilaso4-1Club Deportivo Los Chankas

The model's most likely result happened: a Deportivo Garcilaso win (71%).

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas

  1. Deportivo Garcilaso71%
  2. Draw17%
  3. Club Deportivo Los Chankas12%

2.21 expected goals for Deportivo Garcilaso

0.94 expected goals for Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Deportivo Garcilaso the clear favourite: 71% to win. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.7 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 4.2 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.1 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 2.4 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

30.4 expected

18.7 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 11.7 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots84%
  3. Over 24.5 shots76%

Fouls

26.6 expected

13.9 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 12.7 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas

  1. Over 20.5 fouls86%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls76%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls63%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.