Cusco vs Sporting Cristal

Cusco40%
Draw23%
Sporting Cristal37%

1.64 expected goals for Cusco

1.74 expected goals for Sporting Cristal

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
Over 1.5 goals86%It happened
Over 2.5 goals58%It happened
Over 3.5 goals44%It happened
Over 4.5 goals25%It did not happen

Both teams score61%
Cusco or draw63%
Draw or Sporting Cristal60%
No draw77%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.8 for Cusco and 4.3 for Sporting Cristal

Over 8.5 corners63%
Over 9.5 corners52%
Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.0 for Cusco and 2.2 for Sporting Cristal

Over 3.5 cards60%
Over 4.5 cards41%
Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

28.9 expected

14.8 for Cusco and 14.1 for Sporting Cristal

Over 20.5 shots87%
Over 22.5 shots80%
Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

23.0 expected

11.1 for Cusco and 12.0 for Sporting Cristal

Over 20.5 fouls67%
Over 22.5 fouls52%
Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.