UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar

UTC Cajamarca23%
Draw17%
FBC Melgar60%

1.05 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca

2.38 expected goals for FBC Melgar

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes FBC Melgar the clear favourite: 60% to win. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.5 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
Over 1.5 goals86%It happened
Over 2.5 goals59%It happened
Over 3.5 goals45%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals26%It did not happen

Both teams score57%
UTC Cajamarca or draw40%
Draw or FBC Melgar77%
No draw83%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

4.5 for UTC Cajamarca and 5.0 for FBC Melgar

Over 8.5 corners57%
Over 9.5 corners47%
Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.3 for UTC Cajamarca and 2.5 for FBC Melgar

Over 3.5 cards70%
Over 4.5 cards52%
Over 5.5 cards34%

Shots

31.0 expected

12.4 for UTC Cajamarca and 18.6 for FBC Melgar

Over 20.5 shots91%
Over 22.5 shots85%
Over 24.5 shots78%

Fouls

21.8 expected

10.8 for UTC Cajamarca and 11.0 for FBC Melgar

Over 20.5 fouls59%
Over 22.5 fouls43%
Over 24.5 fouls29%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.