Viborg vs AC Horsens
- Viborg44%
- Draw26%
- AC Horsens30%
1.62 expected goals for Viborg
1.29 expected goals for AC Horsens
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Viborg has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a AC Horsens win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Viborg attack, which scores 100% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Viborg defence, which lets in 49% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.2 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Viborg
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Viborg attack+100%
- AC Horsens defence−46%
Expected goals1.62
AC Horsens
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- AC Horsens attack+86%
- Viborg defence−49%
Expected goals1.29
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Over 3.5 goals33%
- Over 4.5 goals17%
- Both teams score59%
- Viborg or draw70%
- Draw or AC Horsens57%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.2 expected
5.3 for Viborg and 3.9 for AC Horsens
- Over 8.5 corners54%
- Over 9.5 corners43%
- Over 10.5 corners33%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.5 for Viborg and 2.4 for AC Horsens
- Over 3.5 cards55%
- Over 4.5 cards35%
- Over 5.5 cards20%
Shots
29.3 expected
16.7 for Viborg and 12.6 for AC Horsens
- Over 20.5 shots88%
- Over 22.5 shots81%
- Over 24.5 shots72%
Fouls
24.8 expected
11.4 for Viborg and 13.4 for AC Horsens
- Over 20.5 fouls78%
- Over 22.5 fouls65%
- Over 24.5 fouls50%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.