Probably Football

Matches

Superliga (Denmark)

Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen

  1. Sonderjyske15%
  2. Draw27%
  3. FC Copenhagen58%

1.26 expected goals for Sonderjyske

2.60 expected goals for FC Copenhagen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes FC Copenhagen the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Copenhagen attack, which scores 148% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Copenhagen defence, which lets in 56% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sonderjyske

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sonderjyske attack+89%
  3. FC Copenhagen defence−56%

Expected goals1.26

FC Copenhagen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Copenhagen attack+148%
  2. Sonderjyske defence−23%

Expected goals2.60

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals54%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.3 for Sonderjyske and 4.1 for FC Copenhagen

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Sonderjyske and 2.1 for FC Copenhagen

  1. Over 3.5 cards47%
  2. Over 4.5 cards28%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

24.2 expected

11.5 for Sonderjyske and 12.7 for FC Copenhagen

  1. Over 20.5 shots70%
  2. Over 22.5 shots58%
  3. Over 24.5 shots46%

Fouls

24.9 expected

12.1 for Sonderjyske and 12.8 for FC Copenhagen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls51%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.