Brondby vs Aarhus
- Brondby42%
- Draw26%
- Aarhus32%
1.65 expected goals for Brondby
1.39 expected goals for Aarhus
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Brondby has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Aarhus win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Brondby attack, which scores 111% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Aarhus attack, which scores 94% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 10.3 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Brondby
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Brondby attack+111%
- Aarhus defence−48%
Expected goals1.65
Aarhus
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Aarhus attack+94%
- Brondby defence−47%
Expected goals1.39
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Over 3.5 goals36%
- Over 4.5 goals19%
- Both teams score59%
- Brondby or draw68%
- Draw or Aarhus58%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.3 expected
6.2 for Brondby and 4.0 for Aarhus
- Over 8.5 corners64%
- Over 9.5 corners54%
- Over 10.5 corners44%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.6 for Brondby and 2.2 for Aarhus
- Over 3.5 cards52%
- Over 4.5 cards33%
- Over 5.5 cards18%
Shots
26.6 expected
16.6 for Brondby and 10.0 for Aarhus
- Over 20.5 shots80%
- Over 22.5 shots70%
- Over 24.5 shots59%
Fouls
23.2 expected
11.8 for Brondby and 11.4 for Aarhus
- Over 20.5 fouls68%
- Over 22.5 fouls53%
- Over 24.5 fouls38%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.