Probably Football

Matches

Superliga (Denmark)

Sunday 25 October, 12:00

Final score

Randers FC1-3Brondby

The model's most likely result happened: a Brondby win (42%).

Randers FC vs Brondby

  1. Randers FC30%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Brondby42%

1.17 expected goals for Randers FC

1.47 expected goals for Brondby

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Brondby has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Randers FC win at 30%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.1 for Randers FC and 5.1 for Brondby

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.7 for Randers FC and 2.0 for Brondby

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

27.3 expected

13.7 for Randers FC and 13.6 for Brondby

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

22.7 expected

12.2 for Randers FC and 10.6 for Brondby

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls50%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.