Probably Football

Matches

Superliga (Denmark)

Sunday 25 October, 12:00

Final score

FC Midtjylland3-2Lyngby

The model's most likely result happened: a FC Midtjylland win (59%).

FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby

  1. FC Midtjylland59%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Lyngby16%

2.27 expected goals for FC Midtjylland

1.01 expected goals for Lyngby

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes FC Midtjylland the clear favourite: 59% to win. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.5 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.3 for FC Midtjylland and 4.2 for Lyngby

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.4 for FC Midtjylland and 2.2 for Lyngby

  1. Over 3.5 cards49%
  2. Over 4.5 cards30%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

26.4 expected

15.3 for FC Midtjylland and 11.1 for Lyngby

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

26.0 expected

11.8 for FC Midtjylland and 14.1 for Lyngby

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls72%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls59%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.