Probably Football

Matches

HNL (Croatia)

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes

  1. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb58%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Rudes19%

1.88 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

0.99 expected goals for Rudes

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack, which scores 16% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack+16%
  3. Rudes defence+7%

Expected goals1.88

Rudes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Rudes attack+4%
  2. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence−30%

Expected goals0.99

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

5.5 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 5.0 for Rudes

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.6 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 2.5 for Rudes

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

25.8 expected

14.4 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 11.4 for Rudes

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

26.5 expected

13.1 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 13.4 for Rudes

  1. Over 20.5 fouls86%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls75%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls62%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.