Probably Football

Matches

HNL (Croatia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Rudes vs Dinamo Zagreb

  1. Rudes5%
  2. Draw11%
  3. Dinamo Zagreb84%

0.97 expected goals for Rudes

3.57 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Dinamo Zagreb the clear favourite: 84% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Dinamo Zagreb attack, which scores 116% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Dinamo Zagreb defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 76% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 8.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Rudes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Rudes attack+4%
  3. Dinamo Zagreb defence−38%

Expected goals0.97

Dinamo Zagreb

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Dinamo Zagreb attack+116%
  2. Rudes defence+22%

Expected goals3.57

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%
  2. Over 1.5 goals94%
  3. Over 2.5 goals76%
  4. Over 3.5 goals66%
  5. Over 4.5 goals47%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

4.6 for Rudes and 4.2 for Dinamo Zagreb

  1. Over 8.5 corners50%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners30%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.9 for Rudes and 2.1 for Dinamo Zagreb

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

24.4 expected

11.0 for Rudes and 13.4 for Dinamo Zagreb

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

25.2 expected

13.4 for Rudes and 11.8 for Dinamo Zagreb

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.