Probably Football

Matches

HNL (Croatia)

Saturday 24 October, 10:00

Final score

NK Osijek0-1Rudes

The model gave this result 17%. Its most likely result was a NK Osijek win (64%).

NK Osijek vs Rudes

  1. NK Osijek64%
  2. Draw19%
  3. Rudes17%

2.23 expected goals for NK Osijek

1.06 expected goals for Rudes

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes NK Osijek the clear favourite: 64% to win. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.4 for NK Osijek and 4.6 for Rudes

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for NK Osijek and 2.2 for Rudes

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

26.8 expected

15.9 for NK Osijek and 10.9 for Rudes

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

26.3 expected

11.9 for NK Osijek and 14.4 for Rudes

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.