Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Botafogo SP vs Londrina

  1. Botafogo SP48%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Londrina24%

1.31 expected goals for Botafogo SP

1.01 expected goals for Londrina

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Botafogo SP has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Londrina win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Botafogo SP defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 10.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Botafogo SP

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Botafogo SP attack−7%
  3. Londrina defence−7%

Expected goals1.31

Londrina

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Londrina attack+13%
  2. Botafogo SP defence−34%

Expected goals1.01

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%
  3. Over 2.5 goals39%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.9 expected

6.2 for Botafogo SP and 4.7 for Londrina

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners60%
  3. Over 10.5 corners50%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.8 for Botafogo SP and 2.2 for Londrina

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

29.7 expected

17.5 for Botafogo SP and 12.2 for Londrina

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

28.5 expected

15.3 for Botafogo SP and 13.1 for Londrina

  1. Over 20.5 fouls92%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls84%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls74%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.