Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Nautico Recife vs Avai

  1. Nautico Recife47%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Avai25%

1.27 expected goals for Nautico Recife

1.03 expected goals for Avai

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Nautico Recife has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Avai win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Avai defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Nautico Recife defence, which lets in 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 11.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Nautico Recife

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Nautico Recife attack+12%
  3. Avai defence−25%

Expected goals1.27

Avai

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Avai attack−6%
  2. Nautico Recife defence−20%

Expected goals1.03

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%
  3. Over 2.5 goals39%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.6 expected

6.4 for Nautico Recife and 5.2 for Avai

  1. Over 8.5 corners75%
  2. Over 9.5 corners66%
  3. Over 10.5 corners56%

Cards

4.4 expected

1.6 for Nautico Recife and 2.8 for Avai

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

28.3 expected

15.6 for Nautico Recife and 12.7 for Avai

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

26.4 expected

13.2 for Nautico Recife and 13.2 for Avai

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls75%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls62%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.