Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Londrina vs America Mineiro

  1. Londrina53%
  2. Draw27%
  3. America Mineiro20%

1.43 expected goals for Londrina

0.91 expected goals for America Mineiro

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Londrina has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a America Mineiro win at 20%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the America Mineiro attack, which scores 23% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the America Mineiro defence, which lets in 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 10.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Londrina

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Londrina attack+15%
  3. America Mineiro defence−17%

Expected goals1.43

America Mineiro

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. America Mineiro attack−23%
  2. Londrina defence−14%

Expected goals0.91

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%
  3. Over 2.5 goals39%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.7 for Londrina and 4.7 for America Mineiro

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.6 for Londrina and 2.4 for America Mineiro

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

29.1 expected

16.5 for Londrina and 12.6 for America Mineiro

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

27.1 expected

11.8 for Londrina and 15.3 for America Mineiro

  1. Over 20.5 fouls88%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls78%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls66%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.