Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Goias vs CRB

  1. Goias44%
  2. Draw28%
  3. CRB28%

1.29 expected goals for Goias

1.23 expected goals for CRB

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Goias has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a CRB win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Goias defence, which lets in 37% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the CRB attack, which scores 43% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 11.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Goias

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Goias attack+5%
  3. CRB defence−18%

Expected goals1.30

CRB

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. CRB attack+43%
  2. Goias defence−37%

Expected goals1.23

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.8 expected

5.9 for Goias and 6.0 for CRB

  1. Over 8.5 corners76%
  2. Over 9.5 corners68%
  3. Over 10.5 corners59%

Cards

4.1 expected

2.0 for Goias and 2.1 for CRB

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

35.2 expected

16.2 for Goias and 19.1 for CRB

  1. Over 20.5 shots97%
  2. Over 22.5 shots94%
  3. Over 24.5 shots89%

Fouls

27.6 expected

14.1 for Goias and 13.5 for CRB

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls81%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls69%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.