Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense

  1. Fortaleza EC47%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Atletico Goianiense22%

1.09 expected goals for Fortaleza EC

0.82 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Fortaleza EC has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Atletico Goianiense win at 22%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Atletico Goianiense defence, which lets in 43% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Fortaleza EC defence, which lets in 41% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 36% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 11.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Fortaleza EC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Fortaleza EC attack+27%
  3. Atletico Goianiense defence−43%

Expected goals1.09

Atletico Goianiense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Atletico Goianiense attack+3%
  2. Fortaleza EC defence−41%

Expected goals0.83

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals85%
  2. Over 1.5 goals58%
  3. Over 2.5 goals36%
  4. Over 3.5 goals13%
  5. Over 4.5 goals5%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.4 expected

5.5 for Fortaleza EC and 5.9 for Atletico Goianiense

  1. Over 8.5 corners73%
  2. Over 9.5 corners64%
  3. Over 10.5 corners55%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.7 for Fortaleza EC and 2.2 for Atletico Goianiense

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

29.1 expected

15.1 for Fortaleza EC and 14.1 for Atletico Goianiense

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

29.6 expected

13.6 for Fortaleza EC and 16.0 for Atletico Goianiense

  1. Over 20.5 fouls94%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls88%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls80%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.