Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Criciuma vs Ponte Preta

  1. Criciuma74%
  2. Draw19%
  3. Ponte Preta7%

1.99 expected goals for Criciuma

0.53 expected goals for Ponte Preta

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Criciuma the clear favourite: 74% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Criciuma defence, which lets in 42% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Ponte Preta attack, which scores 33% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 10.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Criciuma

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Criciuma attack+2%
  3. Ponte Preta defence+29%

Expected goals1.99

Ponte Preta

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Ponte Preta attack−33%
  2. Criciuma defence−42%

Expected goals0.53

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

6.2 for Criciuma and 4.0 for Ponte Preta

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.5 expected

1.8 for Criciuma and 2.6 for Ponte Preta

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

26.8 expected

18.6 for Criciuma and 8.1 for Ponte Preta

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

30.4 expected

15.8 for Criciuma and 14.6 for Ponte Preta

  1. Over 20.5 fouls95%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls91%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls83%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.