Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Athletic Club vs Ceara

  1. Athletic Club45%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Ceara27%

1.27 expected goals for Athletic Club

1.17 expected goals for Ceara

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Athletic Club has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Ceara win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Ceara defence, which lets in 27% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Athletic Club defence, which lets in 22% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 40% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 10.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Athletic Club

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Athletic Club attack+16%
  3. Ceara defence−27%

Expected goals1.27

Ceara

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Ceara attack+9%
  2. Athletic Club defence−22%

Expected goals1.17

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals40%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.8 for Athletic Club and 4.5 for Ceara

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for Athletic Club and 2.4 for Ceara

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

28.5 expected

15.2 for Athletic Club and 13.2 for Ceara

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

27.3 expected

12.0 for Athletic Club and 15.3 for Ceara

  1. Over 20.5 fouls88%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls79%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls67%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.