Saturday 24 October, 14:00
Final score
Ponte Preta2-2Fortaleza EC
The model gave this result 17%. Its most likely result was a Fortaleza EC win (68%).
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC
- Ponte Preta15%
- Draw17%
- Fortaleza EC68%
0.54 expected goals for Ponte Preta
2.27 expected goals for Fortaleza EC
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes Fortaleza EC the clear favourite: 68% to win. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 9.5 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals77%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals44%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals31%It happened
- Over 4.5 goals15%It did not happen
- Both teams score44%
- Ponte Preta or draw32%
- Draw or Fortaleza EC85%
- No draw83%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.5 expected
4.8 for Ponte Preta and 4.7 for Fortaleza EC
- Over 8.5 corners57%
- Over 9.5 corners47%
- Over 10.5 corners37%
Cards
4.7 expected
2.5 for Ponte Preta and 2.1 for Fortaleza EC
- Over 3.5 cards69%
- Over 4.5 cards50%
- Over 5.5 cards33%
Shots
24.8 expected
10.7 for Ponte Preta and 14.1 for Fortaleza EC
- Over 20.5 shots72%
- Over 22.5 shots61%
- Over 24.5 shots49%
Fouls
32.9 expected
17.5 for Ponte Preta and 15.4 for Fortaleza EC
- Over 20.5 fouls98%
- Over 22.5 fouls95%
- Over 24.5 fouls91%
Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.