Juventude vs Nautico Recife

Juventude55%
Draw28%
Nautico Recife17%

1.38 expected goals for Juventude

0.74 expected goals for Nautico Recife

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Juventude the clear favourite: 55% to win. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 38% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals87%It happened
Over 1.5 goals63%It happened
Over 2.5 goals38%It happened
Over 3.5 goals17%It happened
Over 4.5 goals6%It did not happen

Both teams score45%
Juventude or draw83%
Draw or Nautico Recife44%
No draw72%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.5 for Juventude and 4.2 for Nautico Recife

Over 8.5 corners59%
Over 9.5 corners49%
Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.2 for Juventude and 2.3 for Nautico Recife

Over 3.5 cards66%
Over 4.5 cards47%
Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

29.5 expected

18.9 for Juventude and 10.5 for Nautico Recife

Over 20.5 shots88%
Over 22.5 shots81%
Over 24.5 shots72%

Fouls

30.3 expected

15.1 for Juventude and 15.2 for Nautico Recife

Over 20.5 fouls95%
Over 22.5 fouls90%
Over 24.5 fouls83%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.