Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Brazil)

Saturday 24 October, 14:00

Final score

America Mineiro1-0Cuiaba

The model gave this result 29%. Its most likely result was a Cuiaba win (38%).

America Mineiro vs Cuiaba

  1. America Mineiro29%
  2. Draw33%
  3. Cuiaba38%

0.65 expected goals for America Mineiro

1.12 expected goals for Cuiaba

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. It expects 1.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 36% chance, and both teams scoring, 43%. And about 10.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals82%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals54%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals36%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals10%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals3%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

5.3 for America Mineiro and 5.5 for Cuiaba

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners49%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.0 for America Mineiro and 2.3 for Cuiaba

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

28.1 expected

12.2 for America Mineiro and 15.8 for Cuiaba

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

27.2 expected

13.1 for America Mineiro and 14.1 for Cuiaba

  1. Over 20.5 fouls88%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls79%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls67%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.