Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Chile)

Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins

  1. Universidad de Concepcion33%
  2. Draw21%
  3. O'Higgins46%

0.82 expected goals for Universidad de Concepcion

1.91 expected goals for O'Higgins

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

O'Higgins has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 21% and a Universidad de Concepcion win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the O'Higgins defence, which lets in 35% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the O'Higgins attack, which scores 27% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 11.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Universidad de Concepcion

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Universidad de Concepcion attack−16%
  3. O'Higgins defence−35%

Expected goals0.82

O'Higgins

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. O'Higgins attack+27%
  2. Universidad de Concepcion defence+11%

Expected goals1.91

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.6 expected

6.1 for Universidad de Concepcion and 5.6 for O'Higgins

  1. Over 8.5 corners75%
  2. Over 9.5 corners66%
  3. Over 10.5 corners57%

Cards

5.0 expected

2.8 for Universidad de Concepcion and 2.2 for O'Higgins

  1. Over 3.5 cards73%
  2. Over 4.5 cards56%
  3. Over 5.5 cards38%

Shots

29.5 expected

13.1 for Universidad de Concepcion and 16.4 for O'Higgins

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

20.8 expected

10.8 for Universidad de Concepcion and 10.0 for O'Higgins

  1. Over 20.5 fouls51%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls35%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls22%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.