Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Chile)

Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano

  1. Deportes Limache42%
  2. Draw25%
  3. A. Italiano33%

1.45 expected goals for Deportes Limache

1.30 expected goals for A. Italiano

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Deportes Limache has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a A. Italiano win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the A. Italiano defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Deportes Limache attack, which scores 42% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Deportes Limache

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Deportes Limache attack+42%
  3. A. Italiano defence−32%

Expected goals1.45

A. Italiano

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. A. Italiano attack+6%
  2. Deportes Limache defence−9%

Expected goals1.30

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.8 for Deportes Limache and 3.8 for A. Italiano

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.1 for Deportes Limache and 2.3 for A. Italiano

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

29.2 expected

18.2 for Deportes Limache and 11.0 for A. Italiano

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

22.0 expected

10.4 for Deportes Limache and 11.6 for A. Italiano

  1. Over 20.5 fouls60%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls44%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls30%

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