Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Chile)

Huachipato vs D. La Serena

  1. Huachipato44%
  2. Draw23%
  3. D. La Serena33%

1.79 expected goals for Huachipato

1.57 expected goals for D. La Serena

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Huachipato has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a D. La Serena win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the D. La Serena attack, which scores 34% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Huachipato defence, which lets in 14% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Huachipato

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Huachipato attack+14%
  3. D. La Serena defence+4%

Expected goals1.79

D. La Serena

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. D. La Serena attack+34%
  2. Huachipato defence−14%

Expected goals1.57

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals43%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.6 for Huachipato and 4.2 for D. La Serena

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.5 expected

1.9 for Huachipato and 2.6 for D. La Serena

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

26.5 expected

13.5 for Huachipato and 13.0 for D. La Serena

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

22.9 expected

11.2 for Huachipato and 11.7 for D. La Serena

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.