Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Chile)

Concepción vs Palestino

  1. Concepción41%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Palestino33%

1.35 expected goals for Concepción

1.28 expected goals for Palestino

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Concepción has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Palestino win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Concepción defence, which lets in 31% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Palestino attack, which scores 36% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Concepción

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Concepción attack+10%
  3. Palestino defence−19%

Expected goals1.35

Palestino

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Palestino attack+36%
  2. Concepción defence−31%

Expected goals1.28

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.8 for Concepción and 4.5 for Palestino

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

5.0 expected

2.6 for Concepción and 2.3 for Palestino

  1. Over 3.5 cards73%
  2. Over 4.5 cards55%
  3. Over 5.5 cards38%

Shots

26.6 expected

14.4 for Concepción and 12.1 for Palestino

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

23.7 expected

11.7 for Concepción and 12.0 for Palestino

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.