Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Chile)

Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera

  1. Coquimbo Unido44%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Union La Calera28%

1.27 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido

0.92 expected goals for Union La Calera

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Coquimbo Unido has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Union La Calera win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Union La Calera defence, which lets in 39% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Coquimbo Unido defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Coquimbo Unido

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Coquimbo Unido attack+37%
  3. Union La Calera defence−39%

Expected goals1.27

Union La Calera

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Union La Calera attack+1%
  2. Coquimbo Unido defence−34%

Expected goals0.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals65%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals18%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.4 for Coquimbo Unido and 4.7 for Union La Calera

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.2 for Coquimbo Unido and 2.6 for Union La Calera

  1. Over 3.5 cards70%
  2. Over 4.5 cards52%
  3. Over 5.5 cards35%

Shots

28.2 expected

15.2 for Coquimbo Unido and 13.1 for Union La Calera

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

21.7 expected

10.7 for Coquimbo Unido and 11.0 for Union La Calera

  1. Over 20.5 fouls58%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls42%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls28%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.