Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Chile)

Cobresal vs Everton de Vina

  1. Cobresal35%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Everton de Vina42%

1.18 expected goals for Cobresal

1.79 expected goals for Everton de Vina

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 42%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Everton de Vina attack, which scores 39% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Everton de Vina defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Cobresal

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Cobresal attack+5%
  3. Everton de Vina defence−26%

Expected goals1.17

Everton de Vina

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Everton de Vina attack+39%
  2. Cobresal defence−5%

Expected goals1.79

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.1 for Cobresal and 5.1 for Everton de Vina

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.6 for Cobresal and 2.1 for Everton de Vina

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards51%
  3. Over 5.5 cards33%

Shots

29.8 expected

13.8 for Cobresal and 16.0 for Everton de Vina

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

22.9 expected

11.5 for Cobresal and 11.4 for Everton de Vina

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.