Probably Football

Matches

Primera División (Chile)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Universidad de Concepcion0-1Deportes Limache

The model's most likely result happened: a Deportes Limache win (44%).

Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache

  1. Universidad de Concepcion34%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Deportes Limache44%

1.24 expected goals for Universidad de Concepcion

2.02 expected goals for Deportes Limache

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Deportes Limache has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Universidad de Concepcion win at 34%. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

4.7 for Universidad de Concepcion and 5.0 for Deportes Limache

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

5.7 expected

3.1 for Universidad de Concepcion and 2.6 for Deportes Limache

  1. Over 3.5 cards82%
  2. Over 4.5 cards68%
  3. Over 5.5 cards51%

Shots

25.2 expected

12.1 for Universidad de Concepcion and 13.2 for Deportes Limache

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots64%
  3. Over 24.5 shots52%

Fouls

23.2 expected

11.9 for Universidad de Concepcion and 11.3 for Deportes Limache

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.