Probably Football

Matches

Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Villa San Carlos vs Real Pilar

  1. Villa San Carlos33%
  2. Draw34%
  3. Real Pilar33%

0.89 expected goals for Villa San Carlos

0.96 expected goals for Real Pilar

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Real Pilar defence, which lets in 24% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Villa San Carlos attack, which scores 23% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 33% chance, and both teams scoring, 40%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Villa San Carlos

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Villa San Carlos attack−23%
  3. Real Pilar defence−24%

Expected goals0.89

Real Pilar

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Real Pilar attack−21%
  2. Villa San Carlos defence−10%

Expected goals0.96

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals84%
  2. Over 1.5 goals56%
  3. Over 2.5 goals33%
  4. Over 3.5 goals12%
  5. Over 4.5 goals4%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.