Probably Football

Matches

Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Liniers vs Ituzaingó

  1. Liniers50%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Ituzaingó19%

1.60 expected goals for Liniers

0.74 expected goals for Ituzaingó

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Liniers has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Ituzaingó win at 19%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Ituzaingó attack, which scores 43% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Ituzaingó defence, which lets in 40% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 37% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Liniers

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Liniers attack−24%
  3. Ituzaingó defence+40%

Expected goals1.60

Ituzaingó

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Ituzaingó attack−43%
  2. Liniers defence−5%

Expected goals0.74

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%
  3. Over 2.5 goals37%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.