Probably Football

Matches

Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Dock Sud vs Argentino de Merlo

  1. Dock Sud32%
  2. Draw33%
  3. Argentino de Merlo35%

1.15 expected goals for Dock Sud

1.34 expected goals for Argentino de Merlo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 35%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Dock Sud attack, which scores 25% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Argentino de Merlo attack, which scores 19% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 38% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Dock Sud

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Dock Sud attack−25%
  3. Argentino de Merlo defence+1%

Expected goals1.15

Argentino de Merlo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Argentino de Merlo attack−19%
  2. Dock Sud defence+21%

Expected goals1.34

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals38%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.