Probably Football

Matches

Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Deportivo Merlo vs Arsenal Sarandi

  1. Deportivo Merlo19%
  2. Draw35%
  3. Arsenal Sarandi46%

0.61 expected goals for Deportivo Merlo

1.40 expected goals for Arsenal Sarandi

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Arsenal Sarandi has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 35% and a Deportivo Merlo win at 19%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Arsenal Sarandi defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Deportivo Merlo attack, which scores 35% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 34% chance, and both teams scoring, 39%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Deportivo Merlo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Deportivo Merlo attack−35%
  3. Arsenal Sarandi defence−38%

Expected goals0.61

Arsenal Sarandi

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Arsenal Sarandi attack0%
  2. Deportivo Merlo defence+3%

Expected goals1.40

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals86%
  2. Over 1.5 goals60%
  3. Over 2.5 goals34%
  4. Over 3.5 goals14%
  5. Over 4.5 goals5%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.