Probably Football

Matches

Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Defensores Unidos vs Deportivo Laferrere

  1. Defensores Unidos37%
  2. Draw33%
  3. Deportivo Laferrere30%

1.18 expected goals for Defensores Unidos

1.10 expected goals for Deportivo Laferrere

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Defensores Unidos attack, which scores 29% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Defensores Unidos defence, which lets in 19% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 36% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Defensores Unidos

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Defensores Unidos attack−29%
  3. Deportivo Laferrere defence+10%

Expected goals1.18

Deportivo Laferrere

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Deportivo Laferrere attack0%
  2. Defensores Unidos defence−19%

Expected goals1.10

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals36%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.