Probably Football

Matches

Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Comunicaciones vs Talleres Remedios

  1. Comunicaciones27%
  2. Draw35%
  3. Talleres Remedios38%

0.62 expected goals for Comunicaciones

0.93 expected goals for Talleres Remedios

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Talleres Remedios defence, which lets in 43% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Comunicaciones attack, which scores 28% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 31% chance, and both teams scoring, 35%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Comunicaciones

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Comunicaciones attack−28%
  3. Talleres Remedios defence−43%

Expected goals0.62

Talleres Remedios

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Talleres Remedios attack−10%
  2. Comunicaciones defence−24%

Expected goals0.93

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals78%
  2. Over 1.5 goals46%
  3. Over 2.5 goals31%
  4. Over 3.5 goals7%
  5. Over 4.5 goals2%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.