Excursionistas vs Sportivo Italiano

Excursionistas40%
Draw32%
Sportivo Italiano28%

1.36 expected goals for Excursionistas

1.08 expected goals for Sportivo Italiano

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Excursionistas has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 32% and a Sportivo Italiano win at 28%. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 38% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
Over 1.5 goals71%It happened
Over 2.5 goals38%It happened
Over 3.5 goals23%It happened
Over 4.5 goals10%It did not happen

Both teams score48%
Excursionistas or draw72%
Draw or Sportivo Italiano60%
No draw68%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.