Probably Football

Matches

Superettan (Sweden)

Oddevold vs IK brage

  1. Oddevold62%
  2. Draw20%
  3. IK brage18%

2.56 expected goals for Oddevold

1.29 expected goals for IK brage

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Oddevold the clear favourite: 62% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the IK brage defence, which lets in 62% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 11.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Oddevold

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Oddevold attack+5%
  3. IK brage defence+62%

Expected goals2.56

IK brage

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. IK brage attack−1%
  2. Oddevold defence−4%

Expected goals1.29

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals54%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.2 expected

7.3 for Oddevold and 4.0 for IK brage

  1. Over 8.5 corners72%
  2. Over 9.5 corners63%
  3. Over 10.5 corners53%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.3 for Oddevold and 2.2 for IK brage

  1. Over 3.5 cards46%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

22.6 expected

12.8 for Oddevold and 9.8 for IK brage

  1. Over 20.5 shots61%
  2. Over 22.5 shots48%
  3. Over 24.5 shots36%

Fouls

25.9 expected

11.0 for Oddevold and 14.9 for IK brage

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls72%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls58%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.