Probably Football

Matches

Superettan (Sweden)

United Nordic vs GIF Sundsvall

  1. United Nordic67%
  2. Draw20%
  3. GIF Sundsvall13%

2.41 expected goals for United Nordic

0.95 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes United Nordic the clear favourite: 67% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the GIF Sundsvall attack, which scores 47% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the GIF Sundsvall defence, which lets in 82% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

United Nordic

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. United Nordic attack−12%
  3. GIF Sundsvall defence+82%

Expected goals2.41

GIF Sundsvall

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. GIF Sundsvall attack−47%
  2. United Nordic defence+32%

Expected goals0.95

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals43%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.